The Murkowski Conundrum
Many Alaskans have an off-again relationship with Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski. Some participated in her write-in campaign, making her only the second U.S. Senate candidate since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment to win an election via write-in. Alaskans came out in force during that election to stop Joe Miller, the Tea Party darling who was seen to have extreme political views, from becoming Senator.
The Murkowski Conundrum is — Democrats voting for a "moderate" Republican candidate to keep extremists at bay. Murkowski is often seen as a "less bad" alternative to nearly any candidate who runs against her.
In 2010, Democrat Scott McAdams ran in the three-way race for Senate and captured only 23.5% of the vote. Murkowski won the 2010 election by a margin of 10,252 votes.
In 2016, Democrat Ray Metcalfe nabbed a paltry 11.62% of the vote, with Independent Margaret Stock doing better with 13.23% of the vote in the four-way race. Murkowski won the 2016 election — doing better than she faired in 2010 by 47,324 votes. Murkowski once again fended off extreme Libertarian candidate Joe Miller.
Democrats see Ms. Murkowski as a mixed bag of nuts for those who would rather have a full bag of Costco pistachios. We begrudgingly eat the peanuts and sometimes enjoy the walnuts — but are never quite satisfied with the bag we dip our fingers into.
Ms. Murkowski is seen as being good on several issues that appeal to Democrats — she voted to block President Trump's declaration of an emergency at the U.S.-Mexican border. She voted to prohibit U.S. military action against Iranian targets unless Congress authorizes the use of force. She voted for federal aid for Coronavirus impacts, eventually supported same-sex marriage, is pro-abortion, was one of five Republican Senators who voted with Democrats for the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, and the Alaskan Native community largely respects her.
Senator Murkowski has also roiled Democrats...often, as was the case during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings when she paired her vote with Montana Republican Steve Daines to vote "present." Her vote was described as "a savvy, strategic, complex move, filled with contradictions. It was both partisan and rebellious. It was courageous and cowardly. Feminine and feminist."
Senator Murkowski steamed Democrats when she released a statement before the 2020 Trump impeachment vote indicating her intent to vote against calling witnesses. She said the two Articles of Impeachment were "rushed and flawed." Her position on impeachment during that time was seen as weak and dismissive to many of her constituents.
During the second impeachment of Donald Trump and the subsequent Senate trial, Murkowski joined all Democrats and six Republicans in voting to convict the former president, bringing the Alaska Senator back into the good graces of moderate Republicans and Democrats — for now.
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has hinted she could be a candidate for Murkowski's Senate seat in 2022. Palin was recently interviewed by Pierce Morgan on Good Morning Britain, where Palin claimed there were "shenanigans" in the 2020 presidential election. Fair warning - the interview went downhill about 26 seconds into the clip.
The questions facing Senator Murkowski and Democrats in 2022, especially in light of rank-choice voting, will be whether someone like Sarah Palin will be seen as an extreme candidate like Joe Miller and who must be stopped from representing Alaska at all costs with Democrats throwing their voting weight behind Ms. Murkowski — or whether rank-choice voting will encourage and embolden Democrats and unaffiliated voters to jump the Murkowski ship and toss their full support behind a Democrat and see if any candidate wins an outright majority of first-preference votes.
While we're waiting for the 2022 Alaska Senate field to take shape, enjoy those mixed nuts. Democrats have a lot of thinking and talking to do in the months ahead.
